Methodology:

Riskope’s approach is generally quantitative. Our clients, and in particular their CFOs, need hard numbers to take their decisions and enhance the sustainability of their projects. Riskope is in the business of supplying those numbers in the most efficient, unbiased, independent way.

Quantitative approaches follow a systematic path, encompassing the following:

• The generation of models, theories and hypotheses
• The development of instruments and methods for measurement
• Experimental control and manipulation of variables
• Collection of empirical data
• Modeling and analysis of data
• Evaluation of results

Whether Riskope’s mission is, for example:

• To prioritize action programs at national scale in countries plagued by remnants of war and other risks, or
• To develop a road network maintenance program, or
• To assess information warfare risks to an organization, business interruption potentially caused by a natural hazard and possible threats to a future project or business, or
• To help our clients to make critical decisions.

Riskope carefully complies with the quantitative approach path and uses good, sensible scientific approaches. Riskope proudly uses techniques which allow using fragmentary information meanwhile measuring and quantifying their related uncertainties, when necessary.

Riskope’s key consultants have managed a broad range of risk & crisis mitigation projects, risk and security audits and geo-environmental hazard mitigation studies as well as planning and management of a wide variety of multi-disciplinary studies. Crisis management, catastrophe preparedness and security/communication processes as well as the relative drills constitute one significant sector of activities. Riskope has participated in the evaluation and due diligence for mergers and acquisitions, advised on strategic organization, structuring businesses and deals and the ownership of large entities (off shore companies, trusts, banking instruments).

Riskope’s key personnel projects include short term missions on five continents, definition of needs studies, training for corporate clients, negotiations with community leaders, as well as the preparation of monitoring programs, cyclic risk reassessment and updating of probabilistic analyses after unusual events. Riskope has also strong experience gathered teaching/training/coaching on Risk and Crisis Management corporate and key personnel of medium to large organizations as well at various universities. Riskope’s key personnel offers a unique blend of technical expertise and teaching capabilities which, compounded with their deep understanding of cross-cultural environments, enhance the positive results of short courses and seminars.

Riskope has been involved in risk and hazard analyses for a number of large facilities and organizations, including entire countries, regions, military, food and non-food industries, large linear facilities (railroads, highways, pipelines, tunnels, power lines), humanitarian demining and unexploded ordnance as well as large hydropower projects (dams, reservoirs and pen-stocks).

Riskope has supported numerous studies involving the use of innovative mitigative designs and construction techniques, and has provided alternatives evaluation, including financial life-cycle analysis for operations throughout the world. Lately Riskope has been involved in projects using artificial intelligence, dealing with information warfare, and developing synthetic environments for training of key personnel.

Riskope has developed a number of applications in various areas of its services, including the CDA/ESM (Comparative Decision Analysis/Economic Safety Margin © Riskope International 2004-*), a software geared towards the comparison of tactical alternatives which avoids the pitfalls of commonly used simple evaluators such as the Net Present Value (NPV). NPV is indeed extremely sensitive to the choice of the discount rate meanwhile it underestimates expenses that incur towards the end of the life span.

The CDA/ESM methodology has been developed by Riskope International and is used to compare alternatives in financial terms, including:

• Life’s cycle balance including internal and external risks over a duration selected by the client.
• Project implementation and demobilization costs and risks.

The methodology has been the object of courses and seminars to industrialists and large corporate clients all over the world in the last years.

CDA/ESM, simulates the life of a corporation or a project from a selected initial stage (for example starting at construction/implementation, or acquisition, or sale, etc.) for a number of years selected by the client.

The calculations are all probabilistic and consider income, expenses, financial costs (interests and amortizations), as well as internal and external risks from cradle to grave. During the simulation the yearly balance of the project/corporation is evaluated together with the probability that the project/corporation brings in positive results, commercial financing are sufficient and their amortization is possible. If reclamation/demolition bonds have to be paid, then their payment is also taken into account.

A full description of the methodology is found in “Improving Sustainability through Reasonable Risk and Crisis Management by F. & C. Oboni.

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